When Could the United States Reach Herd Immunity? It’s Complicated.

When Could the United States Reach Herd Immunity? It’s Complicated.
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With the vaccine rollout underway and coronavirus cases declining after a dark winter surge, it may seem as though the end of the pandemic is in sight. In reality, how soon could we get there?

One answer lies in herd immunity, the point when enough people are immune to the virus that it can no longer spread through the population. Getting there, however, depends not just on how quickly we can vaccinate but on other factors, too, like how many people have already been infected and how easily the virus spreads.

An estimate for the path to herd immunity

20%40%60%80%100% of population immune Herd immunity rangeTotal immunity Fully vaccinated Dec.Jan. 2021Feb.MarchAprilMayJuneJulyAug.Sept.Oct.Nov.Dec.



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