Exclusive: Faster path to freedom if Covid jabs exceed expectations

Documents released by the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group on Emergencies (Sage) on Monday show that scientists from Imperial College London assumed the Oxford/Astra Zeneca jab would prevent 80 per cent of cases of severe disease. 

Modelling from Warwick University, which also fed into Sage’s planning, assumed two doses of the vaccine would block transmission by 60 per cent.

Data from Public Health England on Monday showed that just one dose of the Pfizer jab was enough to stop infections by up to 70 per cent, with PHE officials saying it was likely to have a similar impact on transmission. They said that while it was too early to publish data on Astra Zeneca, similar trends were being seen.

It followed data from Israel suggesting the jabs are blocking 85 per cent of…